Game: Detroit Lions (11-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-5)
Time: Saturday, December 30th @ 8:15PM EST (ABC/ESPN)
Weather: Indoor dome
Line (via Draftkings): DAL -5.5 (-115) O/U 52.5
DET Injuries: OUT TE Brock Wright (hip), EDGE James Houston (leg), DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pectoral) QUESTIONABLE CB Cam Sutton (toe)
DAL Injuries: OUT RB Rico Dowdle (ankle), NT Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle) QUESTIONABLE LT Tyron Smith (back), DE Viliami Fehoko (knee)
As the season comes to a close here in the final two weeks, we’re sure to see some intense football games, and tonight’s will be one of them. Two explosive offenses meet in Dallas as the Lions and Cowboys jockey for playoff seeding and potential home field advantages in the playoffs. This is a customary Monday night game and will be airing on ABC/ESPN. We’re in Dallas under the dome, so no concern for weather, and both teams are relatively healthy despite a few impactful defensive injuries.
Tonight’s game opened at 53.5 and while it has come down a bit, it’s still the highest-projected game of the season thus far. These are the number two and number five teams in points per game, and the Cowboys have been dominant at home this season, where they’ve yet to score fewer than 30 points. There’s a couple of props I like in this one, so let’s check it out.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 50.5 rushing yards -115
The Lions star rookie has impressed all season long, showing not just explosiveness but also consistency. He’s beaten this total in five straight, and eight of his last nine overall since returning from injury in week seven. The Cowboys have a stellar pass defense, but rank 19th in the league allowing 115.7 rushing yards per game. They rarely load the box and have shown weakness on the edges, which should expose some outside opportunities for Gibbs. I’m a little concerned that this total is low enough to feel like a trap, but it does factor in Dallas’ recent stinginess against the run, outside of getting torched for 200+ against the Bills two weeks ago. Gibbs has been so consistent that I’ll stick with the talent here.
Jake Ferguson over 48.5 receiving yards -125
Ferguson has been a steady hand all season, especially so in the last four games, where he’s had exactly eight targets in each and is averaging just under 60 yards. He’s getting 7.3 yards per target on the season, and should see success against a Lions defense that surrendered four receptions for 58 yards to Hockenson and 5 for 66 to Kmet in recent weeks. This game has the highest projected total on the season, and with Prescott projected to throw for over 280 yards, the opportunity will be there for Ferguson to beat this total.
That’s all for today folks. I should have a post for tomorrow; the lack of activity last weekend was largely due to holiday festivities. Hopefully yours went well and you had a chance to spend some time with loved ones. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!