Hey everyone! Hope your holiday season is going well as we head towards the end of the year. I had some things going on Thursday (primarily being focused on my traditional fantasy and best ball teams) and thus didn’t get around to chopping any props, but I’ve got a couple I like for today. It was a tough weekend last time out, so hopefully we can come back into form with some great picks this weekend. We’ve got two games today, with a divisional showdown between the Bengals at the Steelers, and another AFC matchup with the Bills at the Chargers. Let’s check out the props.

Tanner Hudson over 28.5 receiving yards -110

Since Jake Browning took over as the starter, Hudson has been his third-most targeted receiver behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd. With Chase out this week, that will open up even more targets for the rest of the field. Hudson has beaten this total in five of his last seven, and the Steelers have allowed a TE to beat this total in four of their last six, including some big performances by Trey McBride and David Njoku. Both projections I watch have over 32 yards, and he should have every opportunity to beat this total tonight. For what it’s worth, I would actually prefer over 3.5 receptions by a small margin, but currently Draftkings is only offering over 2.5 receptions at -200, which I don’t think is worth the price. I’d rather over 3.5 at closer to even money, but with no alt line available, this isn’t possible.

Josh Palmer over 41.5 receiving yards -115

This line for Josh Palmer feels like what I sometimes think of as an “expected value” line. That is to say, while Josh Palmer may average something like 42 receiving yards if they played this game 100 times, it won’t actually be that often that he will have 42 receiving yards. He’s more likely to go well over this total, or well under it, and 41.5 is somewhere between these two likely outcomes. Think of it this way: if you flip a coin for $100, the expected value of the flip is $50; the combined total of the two possible outcomes ($0 or $100) divided by the total number of possible outcomes (2). But you can’t actually win $50, you’ll only ever end up with either $100 or $0. This feels like the case with Josh Palmer here. It’s a will-he or won’t-he situation. He’s either going to have 60+ yards, as he has in five of eight games this year, or he’s going to have fewer than 25 yards, as he did in the other three. The Bills are a 12.5 point favorite tonight, and the Chargers will likely have to throw early and often. With Josh Palmer as the top option in the passing game, he should beat this total handily. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

That’s it for today folks. I’ll be back tomorrow with some musings about the Sunday games, but for now, good luck to anyone still battling in your fantasy leagues and best ball tournaments. Hopefully you started things off with Puka Nacua, as I did in my home dynasty league. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us.