Yesterday was quite the Saturday of football, as we saw quite a few points scored and one game that went into overtime. We went 2-2 on picks here at the Chop, which isn’t as well as we’d hoped of course, but it could’ve been worse. Najee Harris finished two attempts shy of winning his prop, and an early fumble coupled with a bad game script from the get go was a bad combination for us. On to the next day! I’m a bit deep in the brain fog with COVID here, so I didn’t take my usual time to scour through every game today. Instead, I picked a few spots that I thought looked promising and dug a little deeper to find a few props that I like. Let’s check it out.
Bijan Robinson over 18.5 receiving yards -120
Bijan has had a strong rookie campaign thus far, and outside of a down stretch between weeks 7-9 (when he was dealing with migraine issues, apparently) he’s getting 16-25 touches a game and has beaten this receiving total in eight of 10. He’s averaging six targets and 37 yards receiving over the last three, and had six catches for 27 yards week one against Carolina as well. If his usage in the passing game stays consistent, he’ll beat this total fairly easily.
Jerome Ford over 17.5 receiving yards -115
I’m going back to the well again, betting on the Bears opposing RB to beat their receiving yard total. We missed on Gibbs last week (but would’ve hit if we’d taken Montgomery as his significantly lower total) and we’ve made good money this year when targeting this spot. Jerome has 30+ receiving in his last two games, has beaten this total in seven of 13 on the season, and is averaging 5.25 targets per game over the last four. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per target this season, which will put him over 20 in this game if his usage stays consistent.
Breece Hall over 26.5 receiving yards -115
More RB receiving totals? Yes! Breece has been inefficient running the ball this season, but he’s been featured heavily in the passing game where he has been effective. He’s beaten this total in six of his last eight, and his usage has only increased as he’s averaging 8.67 targets per game over the last three. The Jets will almost certainly be trailing at Miami today, and they’ll need to throw the ball to try and keep up.
Ezekiel Elliott over 20.5 receiving yards -110
It’s a quadfecta of RB receiving totals here at the Chop today. With Stevenson still sidelined, Zeke is the feature back in this reshaped New England offense that features Bailey Zappe at QB and some actual points scored in their previous contest, a win at Pittsburgh. In that game, Zappe targeted Zeke eight (!) times, to the tune of seven receptions for 72 yards. While I don’t expect that much production from Zeke today, Zappe will almost certainly be looking for his security blanket fairly often, and with Zeke averaging 5.79 yards per target on the season, he’ll only need 4 targets to beat this total.
I may be back with another post on the 4PM games and the evening game, but I can’t be certain. I could end up snoozing away mid afternoon, so no guarantees. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!