We’re well underway in the afternoon slate, with some of our early bets looking good and some looking dicey. They’re all overs though, so there’s plenty of time left to make things happen. There’s some good games in the 4PM window, highlighted by the Bills at the Chiefs, though both teams are performing below expectations so far this year. There’s a few props I wanted to highlight, so let’s see what they are.
Josh Jacobs over 18.5 rush attempts -115
I’m getting back on the Jacobs carry train this week, even at this high number. In their last three home games, Jacobs has had 20, 27, and 26 attempts, with two Raiders wins. Since coming into the league, the Raiders are winning 75% of games in which Jacobs gets 20+ rush attempts. The Vikings offense figures to be a bit more explosive with Jefferson returning, so expect interim head coach Antonio Pierce to lean on Jacobs and the run game to grind this one out.
Christian McCaffrey over 82.5 rushing yards -110
Two weeks ago we were on McCaffrey over 74.5 rush yards against Seattle, and he feasted on Thanksgiving with 144 rushing yards. CMC owns the Seahawks, with 855 scrimmage yards in just five career games against them. I expect him to crush this total again today. I like alt lines at better odds too; he should go for over 100 today easily.
James Cook over 48.5 rushing yards -115
Cook has 33 attempts in the last two games since the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, despite a couple of stingy matchups against the Eagles and Jets. The Chiefs are not so stingy in this department, as they are bottom five in the league in yards per carry allowed at 4.8. The Bills should want to keep Mahomes sidelined as much as possible, leaning into the run game and using the clock, which also happens to attack Kansas City’s defensive weakness.
Courtland Sutton over 57.5 receiving yards -115
Sutton has beaten this total in his past three outings, and they now face a Chargers defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game this season. There should be plenty of downfield opportunities for Sutton against this weak secondary in the dome in Los Angeles.
As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!