Yesterday was a pretty good day here at the Chop as we went 4-2 on the slate, bringing our weekly tally to 6-2. We had one close miss, and one egregious miscalculation, but that will happen from time to time. The Rams threw it much more than I anticipated, and Royce Freeman only received one carry on the game. So it was. Let’s take a look at the final results:

• Najee Harris over 13.5 rush attempts – W (16)
• Ezekiel Elliott over 27.5 rushing yards  – W (52)
• Bijan Robinson over 57.5 rushing yards – L (53)
• DeVon Achane over 11.5 receiving yards  – W (30)
• Baker Mayfield under 223.5 passing yards – W (202)
• Royce Freeman over 24.5 rushing yards – L (0)

I also cashed in on a hilarious bet, one I mentioned on my 1PM Slate Thoughts & Picks yesterday if you happened to read it.

As a Mainer and a Patriots fan, this was a hilarious bet to cash in on. I’d rather they lose out anyways, and it just seemed too juicy at +2000 odds! I know the Chargers defense is nothing special, but the Patriots offense is truly a joke, especially starting Bailey Zappe in the rain at Foxborough. I figured the Patriots would definitely get shut out more than 5% of the time in that spot, and was lucky enough to smash. Tonight’s game features another pair of defenses that have been weak in the secondary, but in a notably warmer climate devoid of rain. Let’s take a look at it.

Game: Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)

Time: Monday, December 4th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST

Weather: Mid 60s, cloudy, no precipitation

Line (via Draftkings): JAX -10 (-110), O/U 40 (-110) (Draftkings)

CIN Injuries: OUT CB Cam Taylor-Britt (quad) QUESTIONABLE DT Jay Tufele (illness), OT D’Ante Smith (knee)

JAX Injuries: OUT None QUESTIONABLE RB Travis Etienne (ribs), CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring), TE Luke Farrell (toe), TE Brenton Strange (foot)

Both of these teams feature pretty lackluster pass defenses, with the Jags allowing the fifth-most pass yards per game at 255 and the Bengals just behind them at 249. The Bengals have also been fairly porous in the run game as well, allowing the third-most rush yards per game at 139. The precipitation from yesterday’s slate of outdoor east coast games has pass through, and it’s looking like mid 60s and cloudy tonight for this AFC battle. The Bengals are currently on the outside looking in, and the Jaguars would like to keep their division lead as the Texans continue to win. There are three props I like in tonight’s contest, so let’s take a look.

Jake Browning over 216.5 passing yards -115

As we mentioned above, the Jaguars defense is allowing 255 passing yards per game, and have only allowed fewer than 220 yards twice (Tennessee and Atlanta). Browning has all his receivers available and he’s averaging 7.5 yards per attempt thus far, which will put him well over 216 yards if he approaches his projected 33 attempts. The Bengals offense ran just 41 plays last week, 18 fewer than their season per-game average, and Browning still had 227 passing yards. The over looks very solid.

Ja’Marr Chase over 55.5 receiving yards -115

For many of the same reasons that I like Jake Browning’s passing yards over tonight, I’m on Chase as well. He’s one of the best in the game, and he’s beaten this total in 7 of 11 games, including 81 with Browning as the starter last week. In the four misses, either Burrow or Chase were not healthy. Jacksonville’s porous defense should give Cincinatti some chances downfield, and I would expect the inexperienced Browning to look for his star early and often.

Christian Kirk over 48.5 receiving yards -120

Kirk has beaten this total in eight of his last ten games, with the two misses finishing at 46 and 48 yards. Cincinnati’s secondary is hardly any better than Jacksonville’s, and Kirk has been a trusted target of Trevor Lawrence all season. He’s averaged eight targets per game over the last three, and is averaging nine yards per target on the season. Kirk has made his share of big plays this season, and if he approaches eight targets, he’ll have ample opportunity to get over.

As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!