This Sunday’s early slate of games is just six deep, which makes sense considering that we’ve already seen four games played in week twelve due to Thanksgiving. I’ll be honest with you, it is perhaps the ugliest slate of matchups I’ve ever seen in a 1PM offering. NFL RedZone is going to be desperate for action. We’re going to be seeing the following quarterback matchups:

Baker Mayfield (TB) @ Gardner Minshew (IND)
Bryce Young (CAR) @ Will Levis (TEN)
Mac Jones (NE) @ Tommy DeVito (NYG)
Kenny Pickett (PIT) @ Jake Browning (CIN)

Derek Carr (NO) @ Desmond Ridder (ATL)

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) @ C.J. Stroud (HOU)

Thankfully, we have the Jaguars and Texans to drum up a bit of excitement, but otherwise, it is extremely slim pickins. Some of these QBs have already been benched this season, some of them have fewer than a handful of starts in their careers, and at least one of them might not even start at all. That being said, the games do present a few opportunities for effective prop wagers, so let’s get into the which and why.

Tank Dell over 63.5 receiving yards -115

This is a great spot for Tank Dell in a game that projects to have 48 points, with a QB projected to throw for 270+ yards. Dell has 10+ targets in each of the last three games, while the Jaguars defense ranks 26th in yards per pass, and 28th in pass yards per game. There could be plenty of scoring in this one, and Dell should have ample opportunity for big plays against this soft Jaguars defense.

Nick Folk over 1.5 field goals made -115

This feels like a really reasonable price for a kicker that has hit this prop in seven of ten games this year, netting 21 of 22 attempts. This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring affair, so every point will matter. Folk should get at least two attempts, and that typically means two makes.

Jaylen Warren over 48.5 rushing yards -125

Warren has continued to eat into Najee Harris’ workload, and he’s been very efficient in doing so. He’s gone for 88+ yards on the ground in each of the last three, averaging just over nine yards per carry and 11 attempts per game. Cincinnati’s defense is allowing the third most rushing yards per game, at 138.3, so look for the spry young back to find the second level against the Bengals on Sunday.

I personally also have a bet on Rachaad White over 29.5 receiving yards, but he was a late add to the injury report as questionable with a knee issue. He could end up out, or perhaps limited if he does play, so I can’t recommend it here. Outside of props, I love Houston +1.5 at home against the Jaguars tomorrow. They won the game in Jacksonville earlier this year, convincingly, and have won 10 of the last 11 meetings. The winner of this game leaves Houston with the division lead, and I think Stroud will have success against the soft Jags defense. 

I’ll look tomorrow to see if there’s anything interesting in the afternoon and night game, but for now, this is where I’m at in the early slate. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!