We already posted last night about the early slate of games today, and even though it’s ugly, we’ve got a couple of interesting afternoon games to make up for it. Most of us will be interested in Buffalo @ Philadelphia, but we’ve got a surprisingly interesting game in Denver as both the Broncos and Browns have won four of their last five. There was a bit more action that looked appealing in this slate of games, despite it being two fewer than the morning, so let’s take a look at what we like here at the Chop.
Dustin Hopkins over 1.5 field goals made +110
Hopkins has been one of the most prolific kickers in the league this season. The Browns have three more FGM than any other team, and Hopkins is first in FGA overall while averaging 3.3 attempts on the road. Mile High Stadium is always ripe for longer FG opportunities, and the Browns should be able to move the ball a bit against the weak Broncos run defense. Denver has been tough in the red zone, allowing just eight offensive touchdowns in the past five games. DTR will have difficulty getting into the end zone, so Hopkins will get some opportunities. Getting plus money in this spot seems great to me.
Samaje Perine over 17.5 receiving yards -115
For the last couple of weeks, I’ve considered getting on Perine’s receiving totals because he’s been so consistent. I’ve been annoyed with myself for not doing so. This week, I jumped on the train. Perine’s lowest total on the season is 15 yards, and he’s eclipsed 17.5 in seven of ten games. The Browns pass rush is relentless, so there should be ample dump-off opportunity for Perine, who continues to play most of the team’s passing down snaps, and all of the two-minute drill snaps. Jaleel McLaughlin is seeing less and less run, so all signs point to Perine maintaining his consistency in the pass game for Denver.
Kyren Williams over 61.5 rushing yards -115
I actually got this prop at 59.5, but in the half hour or so it’s taken me to put this together, it’s up two yards. I wouldn’t be concerned. Before his injury, he was averaging 83% of snaps played, and he looks to be fully healthy again as he returns against an Arizona defense he torched for 158 yards on 20 carries before missing time. The Cardinals just lost their leading tackler to injury, and they’d already been allowing 138.7 rush yards per game over the last six. Coach Sean McVay says Williams will see heavy usage this week, but I don’t even need to trust his word, because I trust the numbers.
James Cook over 45.5 rushing yards -115
Buffalo is getting into the critical weeks of the season, and at 6-5, they’ve got to get serious about ball security. QB Josh Allen has eight turnovers in the past five games, and Buffalo should want to lean on the run today to extend drives and limit Philadelphia’s time of possession. Cook has beaten this total in five of the past six games, and in eight of 11 overall. The Eagles defense has been tough on the ground, but they’ve allowed a 50+ yard rusher in the past three, and Cook should have a good opportunity to beat this total today.
Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rush attempts -135
We got burned on this total last week, as Jacobs finished with just 14 carries. Vegas uncharacteristically started the game with a flurry of pass attempts, but they should get back to form this week at home against a tough division rival. Jacobs had 26 and 27 attempts in his last two home outings, and Vegas will want to limit Patrick Mahomes’ opportunities by grinding out time of possession on the ground. KC is averaging just 15.67 points per game over the last three, so assuming Vegas can keep things fairly close, Jacobs should get plenty of opportunities to eat.
There you have it folks, a couple of more props than the earlier games provided despite the slate being two fewer. I should be back sometime later today with thoughts on the night game, an exciting matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!