Game: Carolina Panthers (1-7) @ Chicago Bears (2-7)

Time: Thursday, November 9th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST

Weather: low 50s, partly cloudy, some wind (~13 mph)

Line (via Draftkings): CHI -3 (-115), O/U 38.5 (-110)

CAR Injuries: OUT EDGE Brian Burns (concussion/elbow), CB C.J. Henderson (concussion), WR Laviska Shenault Jr. (ankle), Stephen Sullivan (shoulder) QUESTIONABLE WR D.J. Chark (elbow), S Xavier Woods (thigh), S Vonn Bell (quadriceps), LB Marquis Haynes (back) 

PIT Injuries: OUT FB Khari Blasingame (concussion), OL Nate Davis (ankle), LB Tremaine Edmunds (knee), DB Terrell Smith (illness) QUESTIONABLE QB Justin Fields (thumb), DB Josh Blackwell (hamstring), RB Khalil Herbert (ankle), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (hamstring)

We’ve got a pretty ugly battle this week on Thursday Night, as the Panthers travel to Chicago to face the Bears. The two teams sport just three wins between them, and both have struggled to score points week to week. Justin Fields is not expected to play, so we’ll see Tyson Bagent behind center for the Bears. He’s proved to be a bit of a gamer these past few starts, so it’ll be interesting to see him get another go. D.J. Chark is not expected to play for the Panthers tonight, as Bryce Young looks to bounce back after a three interception game against Indianapolis. It could be a surprisingly competitive game, given the equal incompetence of both squads. One other interesting dynamic is that Chicago controls Carolina’s first-round pick in 2024, acquired via the Bryce Young trade. The two picks are currently projected second and third, so Chicago will improve one at the other’s expense. You can expect Carolina’s brass will want to pick up a spite win tonight, but that dynamic is unlikely to translate to the players.

The Bears defense comes into tonight allowing the fifth-most pass yards per game at 256.9, but the fourth-fewest rush yards per game at just 79.7. The Panthers defense is much the opposite. They sport the league’s fifth-worst rush defense at 131.8 yards per game, but the fifth-best pass defense at just 178.3 yards per game. Both teams have anemic passing games at about 190 yards per contest, but the Bears have a much healthier run game at 135 yards against Carolina’s 96. Given Carolina’s defensive struggles against the run, I would expect Chicago to continue their steady dose of D’Onta Foreman and company. Bryce Young has shown some flashes this season, and their best bet will be to try to punish the Bears through the air. Chicago has been extremely susceptible to opposing running backs in the pass game, and there’s no reason to think it can’t continue.

Given all that, let’s take a look at some props that I like for tonight’s game. I’m going to continue to use Draftkings lines, as that’s the most convenient for me here in Maine and is likely available to many of you elsewhere that have legal sports betting.

Miles Sanders over 10.5 receiving yards -130

If you read last week, you know I’ve been targeting the Bears defense for opposing RB receiving lines, and this week is no different. Last week I said to smash Kamara over 36.5 receiving yards as the bet of the week, and he had 44 at halftime. The Bears have allowed 55 receptions for 578 yards to opposing RBs this season, averaging out to over 10 yards per catch and 64 yards per contest. In five fully healthy games this season, Sanders has beaten this total on four occasions, averaging 20.6 receiving yards per game. This is my favorite bet of the night.

Chuba Hubbard over 13.5 receiving yards -120

The Panthers are going to see both of their running backs eclipse their receiving totals tonight, as a cumulative 24 yards is not nearly a high enough number against this Bears defense that is giving up over 64 receiving yards per game against opposing running backs. Chuba has only beaten this total in two of eight games this season, but don’t be worried by the game logs. He’s shown plenty of skill as a receiver to beat this Bears defense for 14+ yards through the air.

D’Onta Foreman over 55.5 rushing yards -120

We talked about it above, but the Panthers are sporting one of the league’s worst run defenses, at over 131 yards per game allowed. Khalil Herbert is out again tonight, and in four such contests Foreman is averaging 15 carries for 67.8 yards, beating tonight’s total in three of those games. The only defense he fell short against was the Chargers, and they sport the league’s sixth-best run defense at 89.8 yards per game. Bagent starts again tonight as Justin Fields sits out again with his thumb injury, so Foreman should have plenty of opportunity to beat this total.

My Bet:

I’ve got a sprinkling on each of these three props individually, with two units on Sanders receiving total as my highest confidence line. I also had a 50% profit boost on a $25 max bet for tonight’s game via Draftkings, so I’ve done a three-leg parlay that was boosted from +525 to +787. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!