Game: Tennessee Titans (3-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Time: Thursday, November 2nd, 2023 at 8:15pm EST
Weather: mid-high 30s, low 40s, clear, low wind
Line (via Draftkings): PIT -3 (+100), 37
TEN Injuries: T Chris Hubbard (concussion) OUT, QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) OUT, CB Roger McCreary (hamstring) OUT, S Mike Brown (ankle) OUT, WR DeAndre Hopkins (toe) QUESTIONABLE
PIT Injuries: CB Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) OUT, CB Levi Wallace (foot) QUESTIONABLE
Tonight will mark the second career start for Tennessee quarterback Will Levis, four days after his four-touchdown debut against the Falcons. On the home side, a banged up Kenny Pickett has cleared the injury report and will start for the surprisingly 4-3 Steelers, despite a wildly inconsistent offense and a challenging division in which every team sits above .500. Tennessee comes in with the 9th-worst scoring offense, averaging just 180.7 passing yards but 115.9 yards per game on the ground. Pittsburgh’s offense is even more uninspiring, as the 4th-worst scoring offense at 16.1 points per game they also average under 200 passing yards (192) while averaging only 79.7 rushing yards.
Defensively, Pittsburgh is in the bottom third in both passing and rushing yards per game allowed, at 245.4 and 137.1, respectively. The Titans defense is a shade better, at 232 passing yards per game and 107.4 rushing yards per game. After looking at the numbers, I’m shocked that Pittsburgh has managed to find itself with four wins, and I’m still haunted by Baltimore’s turnover trifecta against them in the fourth quarter, which eliminated me from survivor pools. It’s a little difficult to surmise how this battle of mediocrity should conclude, but I have a few thoughts on what we might see in this game.
Last week, DeAndre Hopkins scored a hat trick in the end zone, reeling in three touchdowns from the rookie QB Will Levis. With the absence of Minkah Fitzpatrick and the trust developing between the young QB and his star veteran WR, I expect Hopkins to get free for at least a couple of deep shots. Levis has already proven the arm quality to get it there, and I’m not worried about Hopkins’ questionable designation. All signs point to Hopkins being a go for tonight. I also expect the Titans to get the ball to Derrick Henry early and often, as they look to minimize the burden on their young QB and open up lanes in the passing game.
On the other side of the ball, I have absolutely no idea what to make of the Pittsburgh offense. They have one of the poorer offensive lines in the league, which has made it hard to evaluate second-year QB Kenny Pickett very well. Couple that with frequent changes and injuries among his receiving corps and the uninspiring play of Najee Harris, and it’s hard to be successful. This offense has virtually no dynamics to it, except for when talented young WR George Pickens shows a flash of brilliance. Jaylen Warren has been a bright spot at times, and I’d like to see Pittsburgh get him more involved moving forward.
Given all that, let’s take a look at what props I like for tonight. Moving forward, I’m actually going to be using DraftKings lines as opposed to Caesar’s. It was just revealed that the last tribe still negotiating rights here in Maine has come to a deal with DK, which will allow both DK and Caesar’s to operate online sports betting in Maine. It will be nice to have the option to price shop between the two, but I’ll just be using the DraftKings lines here.
DeAndre Hopkins over 53.5 receiving yards -135
I spoke on it earlier, but I believe Hopkins’ big week last week will lead to more success moving forward. As far as arm talent goes, Levis is a huge upgrade over Tannehill, and Hopkins is one of the best in the league at securing 50/50 jump balls. I expect Levis to target Hopkins at least six times as he did last week, and he won’t be scared to give his star veteran chances to make plays. Hopkins beat this number in half the games he played with Tannehill, and I expect him to have better production with Levis in at QB. He may beat this total on one play tonight.
Derrick Henry over 70.5 rushing yards -130
The Titans are allowing 137 rushing yards per game, and Derrick Henry is still one of the premiere bellcow backs in the league. Henry has beaten this total in three of his past four outings, and in all three of their wins he’s received at least 22 carries. Pittsburgh may have the better record, but they’ve been poor on both sides of the ball, and the Titans could easily get themselves in a winning position tonight. I expect them to look to get Henry going early to help open up the passing game for their young QB.
George Pickens over 53.5 receiving yards -115
Pickens has been one of the lone bright spots in the Pittsburgh offense. He’s averaging 74 receiving yards per game and has eclipsed this total in four of his past six outings. He’s shown some nice ability to pick up yards after the catch, and I’d expect Pittsburgh to try and get him the ball in space tonight and let him make some plays. Diontae is a bit banged up, and Pickens will have some winning opportunities against this defense.
My bet: Derrick Henry over 72.5 rushing yards + George Pickens over 53.5 receiving yards + DeAndre Hopkins over 53.5 receiving yards (+500) on Drafters
Starting tomorrow, DraftKings and Caesar’s will be available in the state of Maine, finally. I’ll be doing a lot of single prop bets, with the occasional parlay. For now, I’ll get this last parlay in on Drafters which is still available to me. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!