I hope you’re all having a wonderful and relaxing holiday break. I’m sure for some of you, chaos reigns supreme at your holiday destination of choice. Wherever you find yourself, hopefully there will be football on the television. We’ve got three divisional battles this Thanksgiving Day 2023, and I would be surprised if at least one of these games didn’t end up wildly off script. First up, Green Bay visits Detroit in the dome at Ford Field, kicking off at 12:30PM EST. Next up is our second dome game of the day as Washington faces Dallas, kicking off at 4:30PM EST. Finally we’ll see the San Francisco 49ers battle the Seattle Seahawks and the 12th Man, with a clear and chilly kickoff at 8:20PM EST. I’ve identified one prop from each of these three games that I like, so let’s take a look at them.

David Montgomery over 14.5 rush attempts -125

Funnily enough, these two teams have already played each other on short rest this season. While I don’t expect Monty to see the 32 (!) attempts he did in that early blowout for Detroit, I’d still expect them to run the ball early and often. Green Bay’s pass defense has been above average, while their run defense has been middling. With Jared Goff coming off a three interception game against another divisional opponent, both backs should get plenty of work, and a likely Lions lead will create a positive game script for this over. He’s beaten it in four of seven games, and should eat plenty on Thanksgiving. 

Brandin Cooks over 36.5 receiving yards -115

Washington is allowing the second most passing yards per game this season, and are the only team to have allowed over 2000 receiving yards to WRs. Cooks has topped this number in three of his last four, and I expect Dallas to air it out early and often at home on Thanksgiving. Cooks is outsnapping Michael Gallup significantly, and is firmly cemented as the number two option. If Dak throws anywhere near his projected 278 yards, Cooks will beat this total.

Christian McCaffrey over 74.5 rushing yards -115

Sometimes, for any or a variety of reasons, an individual player owns another team so severely that we cannot ignore it. In four previous contests against Seattle, McCaffrey has 686 scrimmage yards, including 108 in the playoffs last season. He’s beaten this in his past two games, and six of ten overall. OT Trent Williams looks healthy, and there should be plenty of space and opportunity for CMC to beat this total against a mediocre Seattle run defense.

I’ve got a straight bet on each of these, and I’ll also be taking advantage of the 33% ATTD boost on Draftkings. It’s only a $10 max bet, so nothing too serious, and I’ll take these three players which is boosted to +811. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!