As we predicted yesterday, this morning’s game between the Colts and Patriots in Germany was an absolute snooze fest. I managed to wake up early enough to get some action on the under, which came in very easily. I’ve had a chance to dive into today’s afternoon games a bit, and I’ve identified a few lines that I think look promising. I’ll be using Draftkings lines once more, so let’s take a look at these 4PM props, and hopefully we keep running hot!
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 84.5 receiving yards -130
The Sun God continues to be one of the game’s premier pass catchers, and I see absolutely no reason why the league-worst Chargers secondary should be able to slow him down. He’s gone over 100 yards in five of his last six games, and with a projected total nearing 50 points, this game is going to see plenty of yardage on both sides of the ball.
Austin Ekeler over 36.5 receiving yards -115
Two weeks ago Ekeler had 94 receiving yards on eight targets, but three drops last week contributed to a muted looking line of two receptions for 23 yards. I looked back through his career game logs, and Ekeler had never before had fewer than four catches on seven or more targets. With the Lions giving up the league’s third-fewest rushing yards per game, I’d expect the Chargers to continue Ekeler’s heavy usage in the pass game, and set up some short yardage opportunities for him to get the ball in space.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 38.5 receiving yards -130
JSN has continued to receive plenty of work as the third option in Seattle’s passing game, and he played a season-high 82% of snaps last week. He’s beaten this total in three of his last four games, falling just shy with 36 yards against a tough Cleveland secondary. JSN should definitely get a few open looks downfield today to beat this total.
Bijan Robinson over 56.5 rushing yards -130
Arthur Smith is absolutely the most infuriating coach in the league and should have been fired by now given his usage of Bijan, but today’s game is a great candidate for the rookie star to show out. The Cardinals are in the bottom 25% of run defenses in the league, at over 128 yards allowed per contest. Bijan is averaging just over five yards per attempt, and has at least 10 rushing attempts in all games he’s actually played (discounting the “flu” game). Bijan played his second fewest snap shares last week, and should be back to a more normalized role in a great matchup. He’ll have opportunities to get to the second level in this grindy matchup between two poor teams.
I’ve got straight bets on each of these props, with two units on the JSN over as my highest confidence play for today’s afternoon slate. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!