I’m a bit short on time this week, so I’m going to get right into my picks here in a moment. I did want to take a minute to acknowledge again that DraftKings is now available in Maine, alongside Caesar’s. This week, we’re using all Draftkings lines for this post. There’s an early Germany game tomorrow at 9:30am and it’s a gem. Miami and Kansas City may not score as much as we think with some wet weather on the horizon, but I’m fully prepared to be wrong. I’ll be staying away from that game. But here’s a few picks from the 1PM slate that I’ve narrowed in on.
Demario Douglas over 46.5 receiving yards -115
Washington’s pass defense is terrible. Last week they allowed 319 yards to Jalen Hurts. To be expected, right? But what about the prior three weeks? They surrendered 279 yards to Tyrod Taylor, 307 yards to Desmond Ridder, and 282 yards to Justin Fields. With Kendrick Bourne on IR and Davante Parker still sidelined, Pop Douglas should get plenty of opportunity.
D’Onta Foreman over 40.5 rushing yards -115
Foreman has bested this total in two of three starts, falling a bit short against the Chargers in a poor game script that saw fewer carries than the Bears would usually like. The Saints are allowing over 100 yards per game on the ground, and Foreman should be able to beat this total as long as the score is reasonably close. We have no reason to believe it won’t, as Derek Carr can’t really get the ball downfield effectively, which leads me to my next pick….
Alvin Kamara over 36.5 receiving yards -115
The Bears are the worst team in the NFL against opposing running backs in the passing game. They’re allowing over 60 receiving yards per game to them, and I’ve targeted this Bears defense to good success this year. Kamara is one of the premiere pass catching backs in the league, and he should very easily eclipse this total. This is the best prop of the day.
Darrell Henderson over 45.5 rushing yards -115
Green Bay is in the bottom third in the league in rushing yards allowed, at 132 yards per game. With Matthew Stafford’s status still questionable, and the thumb perhaps limiting him if he plays. Henderson should get plenty of opportunities to rumble up the field. Green Bay’s offense is also poor, so they’re unlikely to get out to a lead that would put a strain on Henderson’s opportunity.
Rachaad White over 3.5 receptions -135
If you’ve watched the Tampa offense at all these past two weeks, they’re making a concerted effort to get the ball to Rachaad in space, through the air. Their run game has been ineffective, but White has shown some wiggle in space. He’s had 13 receptions the past two weeks, and three each in the prior three games. I expect this offensive game plan to continue, and White has a great chance to catch at least four balls again.
Tyler Allgeier over 38.5 rushing yards -120
Tyler’s been consistent in his supplemental role to the dynamics of Bijan Robinson. He’s beaten this total in three of the past four weeks, and with Taylor Heinicke making his first start of the season, Atlanta should continue to lean on its run game. Jaren Hall is starting for Minnesota and Justin Jefferson is still out, so the score should stay close enough for plenty of work in Atlanta’s backfield.
As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!