In Thursday night’s tough AFC North divisional matchup we finished 1-2 on our picks, but our pick of the night (Tucker over 6.5 kicking points) was an easy smash so that was good. We had two units on it against one unit for the other two props, and if Keaton Mitchell hadn’t started the game with a negative five yard carry, he’d have been over, as he fell four yards shy. This Sunday I’ve got some picks for both the 1PM and 4PM windows, with lots of interesting games today and some nice soft spots that look good. We’ll be using Draftkings lines once again, and these lines are the totals and odds when I’m writing this, about 10:30AM EST this morning. Let’s get into the picks!

Jahmyr Gibbs over 25.5 receiving yards -130

We have targeted the Bears defense for opposing RB receiving overs four times this season, and we’ve yet to take a loss. Somehow, they’re giving up nearly 60 receiving yards to opposing RBs, and young Gibbs has already proved himself among the league’s special talents in this regard. While Montgomery should get plenty of his usual early down and goal line work, Gibbs will continue to receive most if not all of the third down and passing situation snaps plus the occasional Monty relief stint. He has 35+ receiving yards in three straight, including last week in Monty’s return, and he should beat this total today.

DeAndre Hopkins over 54.5 receiving yards -115

I’ve been on Hopkins over the past three weeks, and while last week was a bit of a let down, this is a great spot to get back to form. He’s beaten this total in four of six games this year, and the Jags are giving up the third most passing yards per game at over 266. This feels like a bit of a discount due to last week’s letdown, and I’m back on the over here again.

Bryce Young over 10.5 rushing yards -135

Bryce has gone for 11+ rushing yards in the past three games, and he’s beaten this total in five of eight overall. The first five games, he was averaging just 1.6 rush attempts per contest, but he’s averaging 4.0 attempts in the last three games. They should be playing from behind against Dallas, so there should be ample scramble opportunities for Bryce today. 

Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rushing attempts -115

We were on Jacobs’ attempts over the last two weeks, as interim coach Antonio Pierce has made clear his desire to lean on the running game and make things easier for his young starting QB. Jacobs had 27 and 26 attempts the last two weeks, and has beaten this total in seven of ten games overall. The concern here is that Miami gets out to an early lead and flips the script for Jacobs, but the best way for Vegas to temper Miami’s explosive offense is to pound the rock and control the clock. I love the over here again.

Jayden Reed over 34.5 receiving yards -115

This is a great spot for the rookie, who has gone over 80 yards in two of the previous three games. He’s beaten this total in six of nine, and QB Jordan Love is coming off of one of his best games of the year with 283 passing yards. They now face a league-worst Chargers pass defense, and one of the softest matchups on the schedule for Jayen Reed.

Tommy DeVito over 27.5 passing attempts -120

While he may be inexperienced at the position, DeVito and the Giants may have no choice but to throw the ball to keep pace in today’s matchup against the Commanders. Washington comes in the bottom five in pass yards allowed, and opponents have attempted 47, 44, and 38 passes in the last three contests. Before that, it was the Giants again with 29 attempts from Tyrod Taylor, and no team has attempted fewer than that against Washington this season. If DeVito attempts fewer than 29 passes this week, it would be a first for any team playing Washington.

Christian McCaffrey over 31.5 receiving yards -120

The league’s preeminent receiving talent at the RB position finds himself in a nice matchup today against Tampa Bay, who is allowing the second most passing yards per game at 266.9. They’ve allowed 30+ receiving yards to an opposing RB in three of their last six, and McCaffrey has beaten this total in three straight. It looks like a soft spot against a weak defense in a game that San Francisco should win fairly convincingly after righting the ship last week vs. Jacksonville.

I have a sprinkling on all of these props straight up, with Jacobs, Gibbs, and McCaffrey as my highest confidence plays. I also have a parlay of Jacobs, Gibbs, McCaffrey, Hopkins, and DeVito’s lines. As always, these are my thoughts, and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!