This Sunday’s early slate will see a bit of a lighter load, as byes and an early morning game will leave us with six contests at 1PM EST. The Patriots will take on the Colts in Germany at 9:30AM EST to start the day, in a game that will absolutely have you smashing the snooze button in the morning. After that, we’ve found some nice props to bet in the early afternoon slate, and we’ll have some picks and analysis up on the late afternoon games sometime before kickoff. Make sure to check back in here before the 4PM games start so you don’t miss those picks!
I’m using Draftkings lines for this again, but some of these totals and odds may have changed before you get around to reading this or placing bets. Use my comments as a bit of a guide and go with your own intuition and comfort if you’ve seen a line that’s changed significantly. With that said, let’s get right into what I like in the early games, and why.
Will Levis over 221.5 passing yards -115
Levis has surpassed this total in both of his starts, averaging 250 yards per contest. Tampa is allowing the second most passing yards per game in the league behind only the Chargers. They surrendered 470 yards to rookie C.J. Stroud last week, 324 the week prior to Josh Allen, and 250 to Desmond Ridder (who is now benched) the week before that. Levis should have plenty of open opportunities to get the ball downfield against Tampa on Sunday.
DeAndre Hopkins over 61.5 receiving yards -115
For the same reasons mentioned above, I love DeAndre to continue his nice return to form in this middle part of the season. The Bucs allowed three different 100 yard receivers last week, and four 65+ yard receivers the week prior to Buffalo, so there’s no reason DeAndre can’t beat this total against Tampa.
Aaron Jones over 54.5 rushing yards -110
The Steelers come into Sunday allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game, at 133.1. They’ve allowed over 100 yards on the ground in five straight games. Jones played 41 snaps last week and saw 24 touches, and should continue to be a fixture of the GB offense going forward if they want to have success moving the ball.
Alvin Kamara over 33.5 receiving yards -115
We’ve been on Kamara’s receiving totals a lot this year, and there’s no reason not to go back to the well against Minnesota. Kamara has beaten this total in his past four games, and leads the league in RB receptions despite missing three games on suspension. While fine against the inept Falcons last week, Minnesota surrendered nine catches for 58 yards to Packers RBs the week prior, and three catches for 51 yards to McCaffrey three weeks ago.
Joshua Dobbs over 28.5 rushing yards -120
Dobbs has gone over 40 yards rushing in six of nine contests this season. Still fresh in this Minnesota system, it figures he’ll have ample opportunity to create plays with his feet as he and his teammates continue to build rapport. Last week the Saints surrendered 70 yards on the ground to Tyson Bagent, and two weeks prior gave up 59 to Trevor Lawrence. What Dobbs did last week was incredible, and I expect to see some of those athletic plays again this Sunday.
Christian McCaffrey over 31.5 receiving yards -115
This is, by a fairly wide margin, my favorite line of the week. In the Jaguars’ last three games, they surrendered nine receptions for 61 yards to Steelers RBs, 12 for 91 to Kamara, and 11 for 84 to Indianapolis RBs. San Francisco has struggled to get the ground game going during their three-game skid, and the Jaguars have been third best defensively against the run. McCaffrey should be running plenty of routes in this game and have ample opportunity to get over.
Mark Andrews over 45.5 receiving yards -135
Andrews has surpassed this total in five of his previous six games, and went for 80 yards in Baltimore’s prior contest with Cleveland in week three. Both of the projection models I look at have 57+ yards, and Andrews should continue to produce as the trusted target of Lamar Jackson in a gritty divisional battle.
I’ve got a sprinkling on each of these props individually, but there’s also a 50% boosted $25 max bet promo on Draftkings this weekend, so you might want to take advantage and choose some number of these lines to build your own parlay. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!