Yesterday was another great day for us overall. After the dust settled, I finished +6.9 units in my first weekend of legal online sports betting here in Maine. If you read yesterday, you’ll know we used Draftkings lines to make all of our picks, although Caesar’s is also available. Let’s take a look at each prop that was posted to the website yesterday:

• Demario Douglas over 46.5 receiving yards W
• D’Onta Foreman over 40.5 rushing yards W
• Alvin Kamara over 36.5 receiving yards W
• Darrell Henderson over 45.5 rushing yards L
• Rachaad White over 3.5 receptions W
• Tyler Allgeier over 38.5 rushing yards W
• Jonathan Taylor over 69.5 rushing yards L
• Saquon Barkley over 77.5 rushing yards W
• CeeDee Lamb over 76.5 receiving yards W
• Joe Mixon over 19.5 receiving yards W
• James Cook over 49.5 rushing yards L

We went 8-3 yesterday, and that brings us to 10-4 on the week. Although Henderson had just 19 rushing yards, we weren’t totally off on his volume prediction. He had ten carries early on, but was more inefficient than Royce Freeman, who then consumed the bulk of the second half action. We sucked out on Allgeier, who had three rushes for -4 yards for three quarters of the game. Taylor had 41 yards in the first half, then didn’t play the third quarter, and Joe Mixon went over his receiving total less than four minutes into Sunday night’s game. 

It was a strange day of football, with some amazing performances from unlikely sources. C.J. Stroud set the rookie single game record with 470 passing yards, including five touchdowns and a last-minute game-winning drive. Josh Dobbs, just five days removed from being an Arizona Cardinal, entered the game to replace the injured Jaren Hall for the Vikings against the Falcons. With no first team practice reps and nearly no knowledge of his teammates’ names, Dobbs orchestrated a comeback that included an 18-yard rushing touchdown and two passing touchdowns, with the game-winner going to Brandon Powell with under two minutes to play. The Cowboys and the Eagles traded opportunities to lose the game at the end of their divisional duel, and the Dolphins and Chiefs played a rather muted game across the pond in Germany. Let’s take a look at tonight’s game and see if we can find any action that looks appealing.

Game: Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) @ New York Jets (4-3)

Time: Monday, November 6th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST

Weather: low 50s, light wind, possible rain

Line (via Draftkings): LAC -3.5, 39.5

LAC Injuries: WR Josh Palmer OUT, DL Sebastian Joseph-Day (illness) QUESTIONABLE, LB Kenneth Murray (shoulder) QUESTIONABLE, LB Eric Kendricks (ribs) QUESTIONABLE

NYJ Injuries: LB Chazz Surratt (ankle) OUT, WR Allen Lazard (knee) QUESTIONABLE, S Adrian Amos (ankle), QUESTIONABLE

Tonight’s game is a matchup between AFC wildcard hopefuls. The Jets would like to stay ahead in the win column as Aaron Rodgers’ potential late-season return looms. The Chargers would like to get to .500 with a road win over a quality defense. It’ll be a little chilly and perhaps a little damp in the Meadowlands tonight, and both teams are dealing with some injuries. The Jets placed two offensive linemen on injured reserve earlier this week. Both teams have starting WRs with questionable designations, and both teams are a little banged up through the middle of the defense.

The Jets defense comes in allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards per game at 184.4, but allows the second-most rushing yards at 144.9 per game. The Chargers defense is allowing a league-worst 297.4 passing yards per game, with a middle of the road run defense allowing 93.4 yards per game on the ground. Offensively, the Chargers are seventh in passing yards per game and 21st in rushing yards per game. The Jets are averaging the third-fewest passing yards per contest at just 164.3, and have a middling run game at 109 yards per. If the Jets are ever going to have success throwing the ball, it should be tonight. If the Chargers want to get their mediocre run game back on track, now is the time. Let’s take a look at a couple of props that look nice for tonight.

Austin Ekeler over 33.5 receiving yards -120

Austin Ekeler is one of the league’s premier pass-catching running backs, and the Jets defense has been very susceptible in the short game and middle of the field. Other than the bizarre overtime battle of New York last week, the prior three games saw the Jets surrender 58 receiving yards to the Eagles backfield, 94 to the Broncos, and 44 to the Chiefs. Ekeler has beaten this total in three of four starts and he should again tonight.

Zach Wilson over 18.5 completions -110

The Chargers still haven’t allowed fewer than 20 receptions to an opposing QB, and I will continue to target this prop when they give us lines softer than 20. We had Bagent over 18.5 last week and he finished with 25 completions. The Chargers poor pass defense coupled with their propensity to make big plays and get out to some early leads creates a game script that is favorable for opposing QB production. This is a bet that’s more about going against the Chargers defense than it is an endorsement of the Jets passing game.

Tyler Conklin over 2.5 receptions -105

If the Jets are going to have success in the passing game as I predict, most of it is likely to come in the short game. Last week, the Jets surrendered 11 receptions to tight ends against Chicago, and 14 against the Chiefs the week prior. Conklin had zero receptions in the anomaly last week, but had at least three in the prior five contests while averaging 5.2 targets per game. Over the past two seasons, Conklin was targeted at least five times in 13 games and only failed to reach three receptions on one occasion. If he returns to his regularly scheduled five or six targets tonight, he should haul in three balls with ease. 

My bet: same-game parlay all three on DraftKings at +450

As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!