Sunday was a great day for us overall. We posted 16 different picks and went 11-5 overall, and we cashed two of three parlays. We missed our 1PM three-legger by seven Mostert rushing yards, but we cashed our 4PM and SNF two-leg parlays on Drafters. Let’s take a look at the rundown of all the Caesar’s props we posted: 

• Bijan Robinson over 49.5 rushing yards W
• DeAndre Hopkins over 45.5 receiving yards W
• Nico Collins over 58.5 receiving yards L
• Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions W
• Christian Kirk over 54.5 receiving yards L
• Jaylen Warren over 18.5 receiving yards W
• Sam Howell over 14.5 rushing yards L
• Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing TDs W
• Raheem Moster over 52.5 rushing yards L
• Matthew Stafford under 253.5 passing yards W
• Tee Higgins over 47.5 receiving yards W
• Gus Edwards over 13.5 rushing attempts W
• Josh Dobbs over 30.5 passing attempts W
• Tyson Bagent over 18.5 completions W
• D.J. Moore over 55.5 receiving yards L
• Austin Ekeler over 33.5 receiving yards W

That brings us to 14-6 on the week overall, and cashing three of our four parlays! Let’s take a look at tonight’s game and see if we can find some more winners.

Game: Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) @ Detroit Lions (5-2)

Time: Monday, October 30th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST

Weather: Dome (Ford Field)

Line (via Caesar’s): DET -7.5, 47

LV Injuries: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (back) CLEARED, LB Divine Deablo (ankle) OUT, LB Curtis Bolton (knee) QUESTIONABLE, CB Nate Hobbs (ankle) QUESTIONABLE, K Daniel Carlson (groin) QUESTIONABLE

DET Injuries: RB David Montgomery (ribs) OUT, G Jonah Jackson (ankle) OUT, C Frank Ragnow (toe/calf) DOUBTFUL, G Halapoulivaati Vaitai (ankle) QUESTIONABLE, EDGE Josh Paschal (knee) QUESTIONABLE, DT Benito Jones (ankle) QUESTIONABLE, LB Malcolm Rodriguez (ankle) QUESTIONABLE, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (illness) QUESTIONABLE

Monday night’s game this week is shaping up to be an interesting one. On a healthy, regular week, we might expect Detroit to trounce easily at home in this matchup. Various factors have fogged up our crystal balls a bit, so let’s see if we can make sense of the information available to us. On Detroit’s side of the ball, they will continue to miss battering ram David Montgomery in the backfield, and they’ll be playing behind a banged-up offensive line. Star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Sun God himself, was a surprising late addition to the Lions injury report on Sunday with an illness. His status is questionable for tonight’s game, and not much is known. The Raiders will see the return of starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, a small but perceptible upgrade over their other options. They’re also a bit banged up on defense at the second and third levels.

The Las Vegas defense is allowing the seventh fewest passing yards per game at 187.4, and Detroit is much further down the list at 240.6. On the rushing side of things, Detroit has been second best at just 76.3 yards per game, and Vegas is further down the list at 129. With Garoppolo at the helm tonight, and Vegas likely playing from behind against a defense that’s stout against the run, I expect plenty of action in the Raiders’ pass game. Detroit’s offense seems much murkier with the potential absence or weakening of St. Brown, but they should have some success running the ball, even without Montgomery. They may also look to utilize the short passing game a bit more to get the ball down the field.

With all that said, let’s take a look at the lines I like for the game tonight. I’m using Caesar’s lines as reference, as that’s what will be available in Maine soon.

Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions -163

The juice is steep here, but it’s a price well worth paying. Meyers has only failed to eclipse 5 receptions once this season. In games Garoppolo starts, Meyers is seeing 9.8 targets and 7 receptions on average. They should also be playing from behind, and there will be no weather in the dome. Meyers will get peppered throughout the game.

Michael Mayer over 24.5 receiving yards -131

Last week, Mayer played 93% of snaps alongside the starters. Garoppolo will get plenty of work as they should be playing from behind, and Detroit’s run defense is stout. Detroit has allowed the third most passing yards to opposing TEs among all defenses. Both of the projections I look at have 30+ yards for Mayer. This number is a bit higher at Caesar’s but you can find it as low as 22.5 elsewhere.

Sam LaPorta over 44.5 receiving yard -117

LaPorta has surpassed this total in five of his previous six games. He’s getting a steady stream of targets, and clearly has the trust of Jared Goff. If St. Brown is out, or limited, LaPorta stands to receive a bit more action than usual. The continued absence of Montgomery likely also means a bit more of the short passing game as a supplement to the run game. I like the over at a reasonable price. 

My bet: Michael Mayer over 22.5 receiving yards + Jakobi Meyers over 5.0 receptions + Sam LaPorta over 45.5 receiving yards on Drafters. +500 odds

As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us all!