Welcome everyone, to another great weekend of playoff football! There’s only three of them left, so let’s cherish the moment and do what we do – sweat some action. There are two games today, where we’ll see our #1 seeded teams return off a bye to face two opponents who many would not have predicted to reach football’s final eight. At 4:30 PM EST, the Houston Texans will go into Baltimore to face the Ravens, in a game that will feature temps in the low 20s and wind between 10-20 MPH for much of the game. At 8:15PM EST, the Green Bay Packers will head into San Francisco to face the vaunted 49ers.
We had a winning record last weekend, finishing 6-4 on picks posted here. If you managed to miss out on Monday, you went 6-2 for a much nicer profit. We’ll take a winning weekend whenever we can get it, however, and there are a few picks today I like. You may see some slightly different numbers by the time you go to bet, as action is coming in all day on these, but you can use my explanations and your own feelings to make those choices when there is change. Let’s look at the picks!
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU) over 60.5 rushing yards -120
Despite C.J. Stroud’s huge performance last week, Singletary was still able to pick up 66 yards on 13 carries, and has eclipsed today’s total in five of his past six games. Houston now moves out of the dome and into Baltimore, in a game that will see temps in the low 20s with 10-20 MPH wind gusts. Baltimore’s elite pass defense is going to further complicate things for Stroud, so I expect Houston to look to get Singletary going early. He’s no stranger to the cold either, as he played his first four seasons in Buffalo. By grinding out yards on the ground and maintaining time of possession, Houston can open up a few opportunities to make big plays in the passing game. Both projection models I use have 70+ yards, and I believe Singletary will have a great chance to get there today.
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL) over 36.5 receiving yards -130
Likely had a strong finish to the season for Baltimore, averaging 4.6 receptions and 53.6 yards per game over the final six contests. He had 40+ yards in five of those games, with 31 in the season finale. Mark Andrews is once again ruled out, and Baltimore faces a Houston defense that gave up a combined 158 yards to Cleveland TEs last week, and struggled against them most of the year. Both projections I check have 44+ yards, and it’s looking quite Likely he could beat this total today.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF) over 92.5 rushing yards -130
This number is moving around a bit today as action keeps coming in, but I feel that McCaffrey is going to pile up a minimum of 100 yards on the ground today. Green Bay allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game this year, at 128.3, and definite rain in this game today should lead to more of the action happening near the line of scrimmage. Green Bay’s recent defensive performances against the rush look solid, but those were largely in games that the Packers were leading from the start, leading to passing game scripts for their opponent. I believe this defense is still vulnerable on the ground, and Christian McCaffrey is a bonafide stud who should carry the day in this weather.
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) over 19.5 receiving yards -115
This number feels too low for a player who eclipsed this total in 9 of 12 games this season, and is playing against a defense that has allowed eight different TEs to beat this total in just their last five(!) games. The rain should keep the game closer to the line of scrimmage, which should give Musgrave enough work to beat this meager total.
I used one of the 30% boosts on Draftkings to put a 4-leg SGPx together with a 30% bonus on a max $25 bet, so it’ll be a fun sweat for today. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!