Game: Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Time: Thursday, November 16th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST
Weather: low 50s, light fog, low to no wind
Line (via Draftkings): BAL -3.5 (-108) 46 (-110)
CIN Injuries: OUT WR Tee Higgins (hamstring), DE Sam Hubbard (ankle), WR Andrei Iosivas (knee) QUESTIONABLE WR Charlie Jones (thumb)
BAL Injuries: OUT LT Ronnie Stanley (knee), LB Trenton Simpson (concussion) DOUBTFUL CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) QUESTIONABLE WR Devin Duvernay (hamstring), G John Simpson (shoulder), OLD Kyle Van Noy (groin), S Daryl Worley (hamstring)
Tonight’s game is a massive divisional matchup between AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Baltimore. These are exactly the type of prime time games you want to watch in the middle of a heated playoff race as we progress through the back half of the season. As of right now, all four teams in the division would make the playoffs, but the Ravens want to push for a potential playoff bye, and there are a number of squads breathing down the neck of the Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore is missing their number two WR Tee Higgins once more, and the defense misses a key starter in DE Sam Hubbard. Baltimore is missing starting LT Ronnie Stanley and LB Trenton Simpson, but the real story is the likely absence of top CB Marlon Humphrey with a calf injury.
The Ravens are allowing the fourth fewest passing yards per game, at just 173 and have an average run defense at 100.5 yards allowed per contest. The Bengals defense has been significantly less stingy, allowing 247.8 passing yards per game and 136.2 rushing yards per game, both in the bottom ten. Both teams have middle of the road passing games at 207 yards per game for Baltimore compared to Cincinnati’s 226.9. The stark disparity is in the run game, where Baltimore leads the league at 154.9 yards per game, while Cincinnati is dead last at 74.8.
Given the way things are shaping up tonight, I’d expect Baltimore to spend plenty of time on the ground while Cincinnati looks to attack Baltimore’s injured secondary. These two teams played back in week two, with Marlon Humphrey missing that game as well. Cincinnati’s offense wasn’t operating at a high level then, but three straight games with 380 yards gained or more definitely gives them more confidence as they go on the road tonight. The Ravens are 2-2 at home, dropping games to the Colts and the Browns, so they can be susceptible to a let down in a favored spot. Let’s take a look at some props that I like for tonight’s game.
Tyler Boyd over 45.5 receiving yards -115
This number seems surprisingly low, given the continued absence of Tee Higgins and passing offense that’s topped 340 yards the past two contests. Boyd had five receptions on 12 targets last week without Higgins, and in their week two matchup (which Humphrey also missed), Boyd had six grabs for 52 yards despite the presence of Higgins and Chase. Boyd should get plenty of targets tonight given Joe Burrow’s pass attempts number is at 37.5, so he can easily get to 50+ tonight.
Keaton Mitchell over 36.5 rushing yards -115
The rookie is finally seeing some work, and his electric speed has proved elite playmaking ability early on. He’s got 172 yards rushing on 12 attempts, and while he’s unlikely to continue his 14.3 yards per carry average, he’s a threat to take it to the house anytime he gets moving downfield. John Harbaugh was criticized last week for Keaton’s lack of touches despite his efficiency, so he should get some opportunity against this weak Bengals run defense. He could beat this total on one play.
Justin Tucker over 6.5 kicking points -135
Justin Tucker is the best kicker in the game, and despite a rare missed FG last week, he’s surpassed this total in five straight games. Baltimore’s offense has hit a groove scoring 24+ in each of those contests, and this game has a projected total of 47 points, so I expect Baltimore to have ample scoring opportunities. This is my favorite prop of the game.
My bets:
I have two units on Justin Tucker’s prop as my highest confidence, and one unit on the other two. I also placed a same game parlay that pays out +2000, and it looks like this:
Lamar had just 13 completions last week, but beat this total with 19+ in each of the five previous games, and had 24 against Cincinnati in week two. Irv had one catch on one target last week, but beat this total in the three prior. It’ll be a fun sweat alongside the three straight bets.
As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!