Yesterday unfortunately did not go as well as we’d hoped. We finished 1-3, but we had a couple of unfortunate near-misses. Stud Christian McCaffrey got us to the promised land by going over his rushing total, but he was the only one to come through. Isaiah Likely fell just three yards shy of getting over, while Luke Musgrave was six yards shy of 20 despite never before having a game with either three receptions or four targets where he went under 20 yards. Sometimes, them’s the breaks. Houston could never get anything going in the running game, and Singletary was never close. Hopefully, we can right the ship with some winners today. There’s two very exciting games, and again there are four picks that I like, so I’m going to get right into it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) over 93.5 receiving yards -125
Amon-Ra’s huge year continues as he again went over 100 yards receiving last week in their divisional round win against the Rams. He’s done it in four of his last five games (with 90 vs. Dallas in the miss) and has gone over 93 yards in 11 of 17 games. True studs show up in the playoffs when it counts, and I believe Amon-Ra St. Brown is as good as any wide receiver in the NFL. This game projects for 50+ points, and I believe the Sun God will once again shine with over 100 yards receiving.
Cade Otton over 31.5 receiving yards -130
Otton is coming off a huge performance in the Wildcard round against the Eagles, with eight receptions for 89 yards on 11 targets. While he’s unlikely to go this hard again, he’ll have a great chance to beat this modest total today. Volume is king, and Otton has no competition at TE as he plays over 90% of offensive snaps, and rarely blocks, running a route on 85% of passing plays. He’s lining up in the slot frequently over the last third of the season, which has been a notable weakness in the Lions secondary. This game has a projected total of around 50 points, and with the Lions allocating resources to stopping star WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Cade Otton should have some open opportunities to make plays.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Rashee Rice over 68.5 receiving yards -135
Rookie Rashee Rice is riding a ridiculous run of success in the back half of the season. He’s had over 125 receiving yards in the last two games, and has beaten this total in 5 of his last 7. Those two games he missed, he still put up 57 and 64 yards receiving. He’s seen target totals of 12, 6, 12, 9, 10, 9, and 10 during that span, and is clearly one of only two targets that Patrick Mahomes can trust, alongside Travis Kelce. Win or lose in his first road playoff game, Patrick Mahomes is going to go down throwing to his most trusted targets, and with a beat up Bills secondary, Rice should have plenty of opportunity to beat this total.
Dalton Kincaid over 38.5 receiving yards -125
Kincaid is on a heater, easily surpassing this total in his past three contests with 59, 84, and 87 yards while averaging seven targets per game. No Gabe Davis this weekend, which should lead to Kincaid as the second option in the passing game. In games that Kincaid saw at least six targets this season, he was 10-1 over this total. I’ll take the volume of opportunity here.
As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!