Yesterday, we went 2-1 with our Wildcard Saturday picks. Turns out De’Von Achane was not in fact prepared for the cold, and the point I made on speed guys sometimes struggling in the cold held up for the rookie, while the veteran and ex-Chief Tyreek Hill was able to still perform. The TEs came through for us easily, as Njoku was over before halftime and Kelce went into halftime just a yard shy, going over easily. As they say, two out of three ain’t bad, and we’ll take a winning day every time, especially given our tough run down the stretch.

I’m expecting a lot of action in today’s games, and as a result there are more picks that I’m interested in. At 4:30PM eastern we’ll see the upstart Packers head into Jerry’s World to face the second-seeded Cowboys. Later on, we’ll see my personal game of the week as Matthew Stafford and his Rams head into Detroit for a battle of the exes against Jared Goff and the Lions. Both games have an implied total of over 50 points, so we should be in for a fun Sunday with two indoor games and some high octane football. Let’s check out the picks!

Jordan Love (QB, GB) over 1.5 passing TDs -140

There’s some opposing trends at work here. Jordan Love has been on fire down the stretch, tossing 18 TDs since week 11. He’s had two or more in his last four games, and in eight of his last nine. The Cowboys, on the other hand, haven’t allowed more than one passing TD in five straight games. It should be noted, though, that two of those games saw Dallas’ opponent playing with a lead and eating clock. The Packers will have no such luxury today. The game has a total of 50.5 with a Packers implied team total of around 21 points, meaning two or three TDs, but Green Bay does not score the ball on the ground. Aaron Jones had just two rushing TDs on the season; Jordan Love had four against 32 passing TDs. Short of a penalty putting GB on the one yard line, they are very likely to finish any scoring drives through the air. Dallas has been dominant scoring at home, which should lead to Green Bay playing from behind and keeping the ball in Jordan Love’s hands. This feels like a fair price for the over, given Love’s consistency in the back half of the season.

Jayden Reed (WR, GB) over 48.5 receiving yards -115

Jayden Reed has been a standout rookie for the Packers, and has been hot down the stretch. He’s beaten this total in his last three games, hauling in 16 total passes for 253 yards. While he will undoubtedly draw some attention from Cowboys All-Pro CB Daron Bland, the volume of opportunity should definitely eclipse any coverage downsides. Dallas has been dominant at home, and assuming they get out to a lead early in this one, Green Bay is going to have to throw the ball to keep up. Jordan Love’s implied passing yards total is over 250, and if he should come close to that number, it will almost certainly involve Reed getting over this total. Reed is averaging 8.44 yards per target on the year, and is averaging 7.5 targets over his last four games, which would put him over 60 yards today.

Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL) over 43.5 receiving yards -135

Jake Ferguson has been a steady hand this season, with at least four receptions in his last six games, and 11 of 17 overall. He’s beaten this yardage total in five of his last six, and Green Bay has been soft to tight ends all year. They’re 23rd in opponent QBR when targeting TEs, and 30th in yards per attempt allowed to TEs. They’ve allowed 13 receptions for 183 yards to TEs over the last four games, and with Dallas having an implied team total of 29 and Dak an implied yardage total over 280, Ferguson should have plenty of opportunity to beat this total.

Puka Nacua (WR, LAR) over 78.5 receiving yards -115

The Packers defense is very straightford; they allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, and the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Teams aren’t even trying to run on them, with just over 17 RB rush attempts allowed per game. Week after week Detroit is being attacked in their soft secondary, and Matthew Stafford will absolutely be looking to torch his former team’s defense in the same dome he’d played in for many years. Nacua should see plenty of success, especially when lined up in the slot as the Lions have been especially poor in that regard. I expect Kupp to get more of the short and mid yardage looks while Nacua will have more opportunity to work downfield and pick up YAC. Both projection models I checked have over 80 yards, and I believe the rookie will make some big plays today.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) over 88.5 receiving yards -115

I’m not sure why this number isn’t higher. The Sun God has eclipsed this total in his last four games, and 11 of 16 games overall. The second-most targeted receiver on this team, Sam LaPorta, is likely to be limited even if he does go this Sunday. This game has an implied total of 51 points, with the Lions at an implied total of 27. If they’re getting to 27 points with Sam LaPorta limited, you can bet it will be because of ARSB. The QB-swap narrative is in full force, and I expect Stafford to have a huge game in his old dome against this weak secondary, so Goff and the Lions will have to push the tempo through the air to keep pace. This number should be like 99.5 yards, or even higher, as I expect the Sun God to rise to expectations today.

As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!