Hey everyone! I know it’s been a minute but we’re finally back at PropChop here today for some Wildcard Saturday thoughts and picks. We’re finally into the NFL playoffs, the most exciting time of the year for football fans. There will be six total games this weekend, with two today, three tomorrow, and one on Monday. Right now, we’re just going to focus on today’s games, which see the Cleveland Browns going into Houston to face the Texans, and the Miami Dolphins going into Kansas City to play the Chiefs in a game that will be so cold, the National Weather Service basically told fans they should stay home for their own safety.
Houston and Cleveland played just a few weeks ago, a game in which C.J. Stroud didn’t play, but there were 58 points scored nonetheless as the Browns came out on top, 36-22. The Dolphins played in Kansas City back in early november in a game they lost 21-14. While the dome remains in Houston and thus no threat of inclement weather, the store in Kansas City is much different. It will feature temps in the negatives, with wind gusts up to 30mph and a real feel of up to -25 or worse. These are extremely tough conditions for any team, let alone one used to Miami weather, so it can be hard to know exactly what to expect. Now that we know who’s playing, let’s take a look at a few picks that I like for today’s contests.
David Njoku (TE, CLE) over 57.5 receiving yards -115
Njoku has been hot down the stretch, beating this total in three of Joe Flacco’s five starts, and going off for 134 yards last week even with Flacco resting. Njoku had six catches on nine targets for 44 yards in their last meeting, and that’s an unusually low yardage total considering he’s averaging 10.9 yards per reception on the season. Their last contest saw 58 points scored and Flacco is projected to throw over 37 times today, so there should be plenty of opportunity for Njoku to make some big plays.
De’von Achane (RB, MIA) over 42.5 rushing yards -110
Achane has been nothing short of electric this season. Discounting the two games that he left due to injury, Achane has beaten this total in seven of nine games, often by a wide margin. I know people are concerned about the weather in this game, and they should be. We’ve never seen the rookie compete in these kinds of conditions, and it can be difficult for speed guys like him to stay loose. Mostert is also returning to this game after missing the last two weeks, but Achane has been vastly more efficient this season, putting up 80% of Mostert’s yards on just 50% of the attempts. Sportsline projects 70 yards while Numberfire is projecting 49. This line might be closer to Achane’s production from his previous three games in which Mostert also played, but it still feels a bit like my Expected Value Line theory; I believe Achane is either likely to go 20 yards under this total, or 20+ yards over this total in most times that they play this game. And as always, I like the fact that Mostert’s explosiveness could see him beat this total on any given touch.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC) over 55.5 receiving yards -140
This total is just too low for a player of Travis Kelce’s pedigree. The Chiefs are coming off of a Super Bowl win and two other appearances over the last four years, and Kelce has been a huge factor in those runs. He and Mahomes are both experienced, big game players, and despite the frigid conditions I expect them both to perform here where it matters. He’s only had 88 total receiving yards in his last three games combined, but prior to that he beat this total in nine of 12 previous contests. These recent performances, plus the weather, are contributing to a deflated total that feels like it should be closer to 70 yards to me, especially if Patrick Mahomes throws anywhere close to the ~245 yards he’s projected for. With Miami’s defensive injuries, especially at linebacker, I expect Kelce to get plenty of opportunities to make plays in the middle of the field and beat this total.
My play: All three picks, parlayed on Draftkings with a 30% profit boost for +686 odds.
I think straight bets on any of these are solid, though Kelce is a little less value at -140. You could pick and choose what you like. But I decided to take advantage of the profit boost offered by Draftkings today and parlay them all together. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!