The Fantasy playoffs have begun, and the race to the actual NFL playoffs is coming to a head. Byes are over, and we’ll see every team play each week down the stretch here, so we’ve got three bonus Saturday games to watch this week. There are some very important playoff implications in today’s games, as some teams look to stay in the hunt while others would like to push for a bye. There’s a few props I like in these games, so let’s take a look.
T.J. Hockenson over 50.5 receiving yards -140
The Bengals are dead last in the league in both receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. New starter Nick Mullens completed four passes in a ten minute relief stint at the end of last week’s game, and he carries a career tight end target rate of over 26%. This is a great spot for Hockenson to have a big game, and you could even play the alt total at 60+ yards for plus money if you were looking for potential value. Mullens is projected to throw for 240 yards in this game, so I have to imagine Hockenson secures at least 51 of them.
Joe Mixon over 23.5 receiving yards -120
Mixon has beaten this total in five of his last seven games, and has second most receptions on the team since Jake Browning has been the starter. The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the league, which should mean plenty of screen and dump off opportunities for Mixon. Josh Jacobs had just 16 receiving yards as the Raiders were shut out by the Vikings last week, but they gave up 5/40 to Roshon Johnson, 7/60 to Samaje Perine, and 7/33 to Alvin Kamara in the prior three weeks. Mixon is averaging 44 receiving yards in Browning’s starts, and should have a good chance to beat this total tonight.
Najee Harris over 13.5 rush attempts -145
Harris has beaten this total in eight of 13 contests this year, with even more action lately as he’s beaten this in four of his past five. Teams have been running on the Colts all year, and they’re allowing the second most rush attempts per game at 31.6. The Steelers and Colts both sit at 7-6 and currently occupy the final two playoff spots in the AFC, but four teams with the same record are right behind them. The Steelers won’t want to expose Trubisky tonight, and they should look to control the ball and the clock by keeping things on the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this move up to 14.5, if you’d like to wait and pay less juice.
Courtland Sutton over 54.5 receiving yards -115
The Lions have allowed at least 68 receiving yards or more to opposing top receivers in each of their last five games, and in 10 of 13 overall. Sutton has beaten this total in his last four outings, and he’s outsnapped Jerry Jeudy in every game this season. He’s scored in 10 different games and has cemented himself as Russell Wilson’s preferred option. The Broncos have played their way back into the playoff discussion as they’re tied for a wildcard spot, while the Lions are reeling, having lost three straight after looking great to start the season. There should be plenty of opportunity for Sutton to beat this total tonight in the dome at Ford Field.
I built myself a same game parlay for the first game that I think is fun, with Mixon receiving yards over, Hockenson 60+ receiving yards, Chase Brown over 20.5 rushing yards, and Evan McPherson over 1.5 field goals made. It’s about +1100 and should be a fun sweat while watching the game. There’s usually some kind of promo on Draftkings for a cheap wager on a same game parlay with either a boost or insurance, and it’s good to take advantage of these promos when available to get the most of your money. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!