Hello again everyone, and welcome to the pivotal NFL Week 14 for all of you fantasy and best ball players out there. This is the final week before the fantasy playoffs, where dreams are made and crushed all in the span of a couple of days. Good luck to everyone still battling, those fighting for playoff spots, those looking to secure a bye, and those looking to get themselves a couple more teams into the best ball playoffs. Today’s NFL slate will feature some more rain in the east coast games, just like last week, as well as a few interesting divisional matchups. I’ve identified some props that I like in this early action, so without further ado, let’s get into it.

Chuba Hubbard over 56.5 rushing yards -115

Hubbard is coming off his best game of the season, and he faces a New Orleans defense that has allowed at least 125 rushing yards in five straight, including 150+ in three of those contests. The Saints defense has been run-funnel for most of the season, allowing the seventh-fewest pass attempts while allowing the ninth-most rushing yards. Hubbard should get plenty of work today to beat this total in a close, low-scoring divisional matchup where Carolina will do their best to ease the burden on struggling rookie QB Bryce Young.

Ja’Marr Chase over 66.5 receiving yards -125

In the two games Jake Browning has started, Chase has gone for 81 and 149 yards. Last week, the Bengals had a clear plan to get the ball to Chase early and often, with many designed screens and slants to get him the ball in space. As the game progressed, they started getting the ball downfield as well, and Browning looked accurate and confident. There’s no reason that shouldn’t be the gameplan again, against a mid-tier Colts secondary, with Chase looking fully healthy and having beaten this total in eight of 12 games. 

Rachaad White over 91.5 rush + receiving yards -115

Rachaad White has been one of the few true workhorse backs in the league this season, playing at least 71% of Tampa’s offensive snaps in every game this season. He’s gone over this total in six of his last seven, only missing against a very tough San Francisco front, and has at least 16 touches in each of those non-SF games. Atlanta is missing two starters in the front seven defensively, and some light rain should keep this game closer to the line of scrimmage. White has quietly been very consistent this season, and he should keep it up today.

Gus Edwards over 9.5 rush attempts -115

While rookie RB Keaton Mitchell has shown explosiveness and gained a bigger share of the workload, it will be the steady hand of Gus Edwards that grinds this game down for Baltimore. They’re more than a touchdown favorite, and should carry a lead for most of this game. Edwards has beaten this total in nine of 11, and a solid chance of rain today should lead to a punishing ground attack for the Ravens. Look for Edwards to get mixed in early, then salting this game away in the fourth quarter.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 29.5 receiving yards -120

If you’ve followed the Chop at all this year, you’ll know the Bears have been dreadful against opposing RBs in the receiving department. They’re allowing the most receiving yards per game to them, and Gibbs went for 59 on six catches back in week 10 against Chicago. He hasn’t beaten this total in two close games the last two weeks, but prior to that he had beaten it in four straight. This is a perfect matchup for the Lions to get their star rookie reintegrated into the passing game. Look for them to get it to Gibbs in space a few times, and he’ll make a few plays from there.

D.J. Moore over 71.5 receiving yards -115

In the four games that Justin Fields has played start to finish. Moore is averaging 142 receiving yards per game, with a low of 96. Detroit is allowing the second most yards per pass since week seven, and Moore has garnered the largest share of his team’s receiving yards at 45%. It might be a chilly one in Chicago, but no precipitation, so Moore should get a chance to make plays downfield against a soft Lions secondary.

I’ve got straight bets on each of these props, but my two highest confidence picks would be Ja’Marr Chase and Gus Edwards. I put together a parlay that includes those two, plus Gibbs and Hubbard lines at +1010. It’s always fun for me to put a smaller amount on a parlay to have a nice ROI hit to sweat out. There’s also a stepped-up parlay boost on Draftkings today that will boost that +1010 up a bit if you take advantage of that promo. I should be back sometime today with a post on the 4PM games before those kick off, so be sure to refresh the Chop later on. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!