Week 13 Sunday Early Slate Thoughts & Picks

Thursday night’s game saw a fantastic amount of scoring, and if you were on any sort of overs in the game, you were likely a winner. We were 2/2 on our props posted here, so it’s always nice to start the week out with some wins. This Sunday’s 1PM EST slate features seven games, and a number of east coast contests will see wet, rainy conditions this weekend. The weather can make things a little murkier, but it can also lead us to some conclusions in certain games. There are four props I like on this slate, so let’s take a look at them.

Najee Harris over 13.5 rushing attempts -125

Arizona is the most run-on defense in the league this season, and opponents have averaged 30 rushing attempts over their past four contests. Pittsburgh has been the most run-heavy during that span, with 125 attempts of their own. With potential rain projected in this low-scoring affair, there should be ample opportunity for both RBs to get work in this one. Harris is over this total in three of four, and seven of nine, and I expect them to continue to grind early downs with him again.

Ezekiel Elliott over 27.5 rushing yards -120

This number has deflated a bit from its low-30s origin, due to the fact that Zeke was listed as questionable with a thigh issue. If Zeke is active in this one, he will almost certainly get enough work to beat this total. This game will feature guaranteed rain, plus Bailey Zappe at quarterback. The Pats are running the ball more than ever, with 67 attempts over the past two games, and there’s no reason it should change here. Zeke is well over this total in the past week, and in five of six. If he’s in, he’s over.

Bijan Robinson over 57.5 rushing yards -115

The Jets run defense has been pretty soft, allowing 140 yards per game on the ground. Both projection models I checked show Bijan with 60+ rushing yards, and in a game that will see rain and another start by Desmond Ridder, the Falcons will want to stay safe and keep the ball on the ground. Testing the Jets secondary in those conditions could be deadly, so if the Falcons want to keep their playoff run alive, they’ll give their star RB plenty of opportunity on Sunday.

Devon Achane over 11.5 receiving yards -120

In the three games Achane has actually played, he had 30, 19, and 14 receiving yards. These are the RB receiving yard totals for Washington’s last seven opponents: 39, 57, 82, 57, 37, 46, 43. There’s been no indications that Achane will be severely limited or on a snap count, and he could easily eclipse this total on one play. I love the over here.

I’ve got straight bets on all of these but I also put a little parlay together with them as well as a couple of other things I liked, but not enough to confidently recommend. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!