Week 12 Check-In + MNF Thoughts & Picks

Yesterday was filled with some of the worst games I’ve ever seen, sprinkled with a bit of fascinating football. We had some close wins and losses here at the Chop, so let’s check in on our performance yesterday, and Week 12 as a whole.

  • Tank Dell over 63.5 receiving yards L
  • Nick Folk over 1.5 field goals made L
  • Jaylen Warren over 48.5 rushing yards W
  • Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rushing attempts W
  • Dustin Hopkins over 1.5 field goals made W
  • Samaje Perine over 17.5 receiving yards L
  • Kyren Williams over 61.5 rushing yards W
  • James Cook over 45.5 rushing yards L
  • Keaton Mitchell over 8.5 receiving yards W

We finished at 5-4 on the day yesterday, bringing us to 9-5 on the week as a whole. We just squeaked by on Jaylen Warren by half a yard, but destroyed the totals on Kyren Williams’ rushing yards and Josh Jacobs’ rushing attempts. Tank Dell piled up all 50 of his receiving yards in the first half and went blank in the second half, while James Cook went into overtime needing five rushing yards to go over but managed to get just two yards on two attempts. 

Tonight, the Chicago Bears play, and that means I’m going to target their defensive weakness to opposing RBs in the passing game once more. I’ve been on this for five straight weeks, and despite not cashing my first attempt with Jacobs five weeks ago, it’s 4/4 the last four weeks. Both Lions RBs beat their total last week, and we could see the same thing again tonight. The Vikings aren’t necessarily a team that throws to its RBs frequently, but Josh Dobbs will take what’s available. The Bears are allowing over 50 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields, and the primary Vikings backs of Mattison and Chandler have totals of just 11.5 and 10.5, respectively. 

My Pick: Ty Chandler over 10.5 receiving yards -115

Chandler appears to have carved out a role with the Vikings over the past couple of weeks, getting the majority of the passing down work in a lively offense with Josh Dobbs at the helm. He picked up four catches for 37 yards last week, and assuming he continues to see the third down and two-minute work, he should eclipse this total on a couple of grabs. He’s been fairly efficient on the ground too, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few more early down snaps for him as well.

Chandler is the only straight bet I placed for tonight, but I put in a fun same-game parlay to sweat. It’s got six legs, a couple of alternate lines, and comes in at +1500 odds. I’ll share a snapshot below. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!