Yesterday was rather muted for our prop picks here at the Chop. We finished 3-4, down a little, but not getting crushed. It’s a long season, and losing days are going to happen. We had some pretty close calls, a couple of bad beats, and some luck in our favor as well. It’s easy in gambling to focus on bad beats and close losses, but it’s also important to acknowledge that some wins are lucky and undeserved. It keeps us humble and level headed, and doesn’t infect us with a victim mentality. That all helps us to give the fairest evaluation of our predictions after the fact. Let’s take a look at the props I posted yesterday:

• Jahmyr Gibbs over 25.5 receiving yards W
• DeAndre Hopkins over 54.5 receiving yards W
• Bryce Young over 10.5 rushing yards L
• Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rush attempts L
• Jayden Reed over 34.5 receiving yards W
• Tommy DeVito over 27.5 pass attempts L
• Christian McCaffrey over 31.5 receiving yards L

On the winning side of things, I believe this is the fifth time I’ve targeted the Bears defense with the opposing running back receiving yards over, and it’s won every single time. The Bears gave up 81 yards yesterday as both Gibbs and Montgomery crushed their totals. Chicago continues to allow over 60 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, and I have no idea who they play next week but I can’t wait to target this spot again. Hopkins had a 43 yard touchdown that propelled him to go over on just four catches, which is a little lucky, but also you’re anticipating that possibility in some percentage of games against a pass defense as weak as Jacksonville. 

On the losing side of things, we weren’t on with our opinions of Bryce Young. He was back to getting nearly no action on the ground, with just three attempts that had a kneel down amongst them. Tommy DeVito had 19 pass attempts at halftime, and just 7 attempts in the second half. New York held a surprising lead early and never relinquished it, milking the clock as much as possible in the second half. Similarly, McCaffrey had 19 receiving yards in the first half but only managed to pick up six in the second half. So it goes.

Tonight you’ll want to break out the popcorn for a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, as the Philadelphia Eagles head into Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs. There’s a couple of picks I like for tonight, so let’s take a look into the game a bit.

Game: Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)

Time: Monday, November 20th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST

Weather: low 40s, wind up to 15MPH, likely rain.

Line (via Draftkings): KC -3 (+100) O/U 45.5 

PHI Injuries: OUT TE Dallas Goedert, S Justin Evans, DE Derek Barnett 

KC Injuries: No non-IR injury designations 

Interesting to note of this rematch, both teams are coming off of their bye weeks, just as in the Super Bowl. Both teams have excellent coaching staff, and it should be just as exciting a chess match as the previous game. There’s going to be some amount of rain in this game and perhaps a little wind, so it’s possible that encourages both teams to play a little more conservatively than they may otherwise in clear weather. The Eagles come into tonight allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the league, at just 66, while allowing the fourth-most passing yards. The Chiefs defense is allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game and is middle-of-the-pack in rushing yards allowed. 

While this game is not likely to provide the 73 point explosion we saw in the Super Bowl, it may be just as tight of a contest as that three point Chiefs victory last February. Given how staunch the Eagles defensive front has been, we should expect to see plenty of Mahomes through the air. The rain may prove a bit of a barrier, but it could just lead to more short throws and safer plays as opposed to the near-impossible task of beating the Eagles on the ground. Conversely, the Chiefs have been very consistent in the secondary, holding Miami’s explosive pass game to under 200 yards in their last outing. The Eagles will likely look for success on the ground, where they’re already the most run-heavy team in the league at 47% of total snaps.

There’s a couple of props I do like in the game tonight, although I wouldn’t be surprised if either coaching staff comes with an unique game plan that catches me off guard. There’s a certain amount of leveling in a coaching and talent matchup this good, and that should make for some great football. Let’s check out the props:

D’Andre Swift over 13.5 rush attempts -125

Swift has had 14+ attempts in seven of eight games that he’s started. As noted above, KC’s defense is much more vulnerable on the ground, an area the Eagles offense already excels. Swift played at least 65% of offensive snaps their last three games, with 18, 16, and 15 rush attempts in those games. On top of that, some rain is likely to lead to more conservative play calling offensively. This looks like a strong Swift game.

Rashee Rice over 43.5 receiving yards -125

The Eagles effectively play a pass funnel defense, with a very strong front allowing league lows in rushing yards and attempts. Conversely, Eagles opponents have only attempted fewer than 33 passes on one occasion, and Mahomes is projected for about 38 attempts tonight. That kind of volume is good news for Rashee Rice, who has steadily increased his snap share as the season has progressed. He set personal highs in each of the past three contests, playing 59%, 61%, and 68% of snaps respectively. He’s had 56+ receiving yards in three of the last four, and should get enough targets to beat this total tonight. 

I’ve got both of these as straight bets, and then I built a fun little SGP using the 33% boost for MNF on Draftkings tonight. I’ll tweet that one out and you can find it over on Twitter @PropChopSports. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, have fun, and good luck to us!