While we may have had a pretty average day overall with our picks posted here, I ended up ahead quite a bit on the whole yesterday, as I was able to smash a +2000 five-leg parlay which included my four posted afternoon picks and a winning pick I posted for SNF. I was also on the Patriots under, the Chargers over, the Seahawks over, and the Raiders under, which all came in. Let’s take a look at the props I posted yesterday:

• Will Levis over 221.5 passing yards L
• DeAndre Hopkins over 61.5 receiving yards L
• Aaron Jones over 54.5 rushing yards L
• Alvin Kamara over 33.5 receiving yards L
• Joshua Dobbs over 28.5 rushing yards W
• Christian McCaffrey over 31.5 receiving yards W
• Mark Andrews over 45.5 receiving yards L
• Amon-Ra St. Brown over 84.5 receiving yards W
• Austin Ekeler over 36.5 receiving yards W
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 38.5 receiving yards W
• Bijan Robinson over 56.5 rushing yards W
• Josh Jacobs over 16.5 rushing attempts W
• Breece Hall over 67.5 rushing yards L

We went 7-6 overall yesterday, for a small loss if you were playing one unit per pick, losing a bit on the juice. I did however go four for four in the 4PM games, with all four coming in by the fourth quarter. I had a five leg parlay that included those four lines plus Jacobs over 16.5 rushing attempts in the late game at about +2000. I did do a small hedge against it, because I’m always scared of injury, but it came in and we were on the bigger side of the profits. If you bet Kamara later than I did, you likely got a smaller number and won, as he finished with 33 yards receiving. Mark Andrews was also 2 yards shy of his total. Some close calls. Including our three for three night on Thursday, that brings us to 10-6 on the week. There are a few picks I like in tonight’s game, so without further ado, let’s take a look at them.

Game: Denver Broncos (3-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-4)

Time: Monday, November 13th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST

Weather: low 40s, some wind (up to 14mph), slight chance of rain (13%)

Line (via Draftkings): BUF -7 (-112), 47 (over -115, under -105)

DEN Injuries: No non-IR injury designations

BUF Injuries: OUT CB Christian Benford (hamstring), S Micah Hyde (neck/stinger) QUESTIONABLE LB Terrel Bernard (concussion)

We’ve got a chilly matchup tonight with the resurgent Broncos riding a two game win streak into Buffalo to face the tumultuous Bills. Buffalo hasn’t won two in a row for the past five weeks and is looking more vulnerable than many believed, while the Broncos are coming off a bye and a very strong win at home against division rival Kansas City. Both teams have fairly middling defenses overall, though it’s worth noting that the Broncos do sport the league’s worst run defense, allowing over 154 yards per game on the ground. There’s a small chance of rain in this one tonight, and it should be a chilly night up in northern New York with temps in the low 40s. There’s a few picks I like in tonight’s contest, so let’s take a look at them.

Javonte Williams over 13.5 rush attempts -130

The Bills run defense is right in the middle of the pack, having an up and down season and allowing 114.4 yards per game. Williams finally seems fully healthy after returning from a torn ACL suffered last season. He played a season-high 63% of the snaps last season with 27 carries in a win against Kansas City. While Denver probably won’t get out to the same type of lead this week, head coach Sean Payton seems committed to the run as Williams had 15 attempts the week prior and Russell Wilson is averaging just 23.3 pass attempts over their last three contests. The best way to slow Buffalo’s offense down is to keep them on the sidelines, so I’d expect the Broncos to try and grind out this road game on the ground tonight.

Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards -120

Josh Allen surpassed 40 yards in each of his past two games after having fewer than 20 in each of the previous four. More importantly, Buffalo appears recommitted to their offensive versatility, as Allen has seen at least seven rush attempts in each of the previous three contests. That dual-threat ability is what makes Allen so dangerous, and the Bills are at their best by taking advantage of those skills. As noted, the Broncos are allowing a league-worst 154 rushing yards per game, so I expect Allen to get into the second level on the ground multiple times tonight.

Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions -135

Diggs has beaten this total in seven of nine contests this season, finishing with six receptions the two games he missed this line. One of those games was last week, in which he was targeted just seven times after seeing target totals of 12, 12, 16, and 11 the prior four weeks. I’d expect him to be in the double-digit target range again tonight, as Denver does alright limiting big passing plays but has been susceptible in the short game, allowing 24.4 completions per contest. I have some reservations about the game being slowed down if both teams see success on the ground, but Diggs could see a number of shorter, quicker completions tonight. Buffalo has also been running more no-huddle in the past few weeks, and that quicker tempo will help us hit this total.

My Bet:

I’ve sprinkled some action on each of these props individually, but Draftkings had a promo tonight for a 50% Same Game Parlay boost, with a $25 max wager and 4+ legs required. I used these three lines plus the Bills moneyline at +1100, boosted to +1650, so we could take home $437.50 for our $25 if we sweep tonight and the Bills get a win. As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, good luck, and have fun!