I hope you were able to catch my thoughts on Thursday night’s game – we went 3-1 on our Caesar’s lines and cashed a two-leg prop parlay via Drafters! The game went reasonably within my expectations and I was happy to come out ahead. Today’s slate of early games is deep – nine of them in total. A number of games may encounter a bit of weather, including MIN @ GB, ATL @ TEN, NE @ MIA, JAX @ PIT, PHI @ WAS, and some definite rain in the battle at the Meadowlands between the Jets and Giants. I’m not going to go deep into every game, as I did with the Thursday night game, but I’m going to give you which picks I like today, and why. I should be back sometime Sunday with a piece on the afternoon and evening games. Don’t forget, we’ll be using Caesar’s as our base of reference here, because that’s what will soon be available to Maine bettors. Let’s get into it!

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans

Bijan Robinson over 49.5 rushing yards -123 

In the last two weeks, the once stalwart Tennessee run defense has surrendered 139 rushing yards to Baltimore, and 192 to Indianapolis. I know people are upset about the circumstances surrounding Bijan last week, but it feels like we’re getting a discount here as I think it should be closer to 55 yards.

DeAndre Hopkins over 45.5 receiving yards -101

Atlanta’s defense over the last three weeks has surrendered 81 yards to McLaurin, 82 to Mike Evans, and a combined 122 yards to Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell. Hopkins had a down week last outing with 1/20, but eclipsed 45.5 yards the previous three games and he’s going to do it again this week.

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers

Nico Collins over 58.5 rec yds -131

Nico has beaten this number in four of six games this year, and has been a standout for the upstart Texans. Carolina has been susceptible on the outside, surrendering 163 yards to Tyreek Hill, 76 to Josh Reynolds, and 85 to Justin Jefferson. Nico’s been at his best against the zone, which Carolina’s defense runs over 80% of snaps. Take the over.

Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions -157

Until the books want to man up and move Thielen’s total to 7.0 or higher, I’m going to continue to bet it. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and Thielen’s beaten this total each of the past five games with 11, 11, 7, 11, and 7. Texans allowed seven receptions each to three different receivers, and six or more receptions to three different receivers the week prior. This feels like free money.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Christian Kirk over 54.5 receiving yards -131

Kirk has beaten this total in five of six games this year, and although we may expect to see a bit of rain tomorrow, there’s reason to be bullish on this one. Kirk consistently beats man coverage, which Pittsburgh runs at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Pitt has also been weak against the slot recently, where Kirk frequently lines up. Both projection models I look at have 60+, and I like the over.

Jaylen Warren over 18.5 receiving yards -133

Jacksonville has been extremely soft to RBs in the passing game in recent weeks. It seems they are perfectly fine with letting RBs get underneath as they seek to limit the big plays. Last week they gave up 12/91 to Kamara, and the week before they gave up 46 and 38 yards to Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. Warren’s surpassed this total in four of his last five, and I like it here.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Sam Howell over 14.5 rush yards -109

The last time these two met, Howell had six carries to the tune of 40 yards. He’s shown some wiggle this season, springing a few key runs on scramble situations and not forcing throws downfield. He’s beaten this total 4/7 games, and should get a few of those scramble opportunities while playing from behind against the Eagles. I think this total is a few yards light and I love the over. This is my top pick of the day, alongside Thielen’s receptions.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing TDs -121

If you look at the numbers, the Packers pass defense looks pretty elite. But if you look at the list of QBs they’ve played against, it may be a different story: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr/Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Russell Wilson. Kirk Cousins is by far the best they’ve played, and he’s had two or more passing TDs in all but one game this season. In a huge divisional game, I like Kirk to step up and continue his high caliber of play. Go over.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert over 52.5 rushing yards -123

New England has allowed a 53+ yard runner in the last three games, and in five of seven over all. In the last meeting between these two, Mostert went for over 120 yards, as the usually reasonable Patriots rush defense tends to struggle against zone running schemes like the Dolphins employ. This total feels like it should be closer to 60.

Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

Matthew Stafford under 253.5 passing yards -117

You didn’t think I’d go the whole 1PM slate with offering one single under prop, did you? (You probably did, fairly enough. I love me some overs.) This one however, looks great. First and foremost, Dallas has yet to allow 254 passing yards in a single game this season. They’re allowing just 177 passing yards per game. Stafford is coming over a big game with Nacua’s heroics, but I look for them to come down to earth a bit in the yards department. Both projection models I view have 245, and the under feels like a very solid play. 

My Bet:

Raheem Mostert over 51.5 rush yds + Bijan Robinson o49.5 rush yds + DeAndre Hopkins over 43.5 receiving yards

Due to the continued unavailability of regular online betting, until next month, and the shuddering of services like Underdog Fantasy and SuperDraft in Maine, we’ll be placing a pick’em parlay on Drafters. This is what I have here, as these are my top confidence plays of the early slate that were available to me on Drafters. I love the Howell rushing yards and Thielen receptions lines, but neither of these props were available when I placed my bet.

As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, and have fun. Good luck to us!