Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) @ Buffalo Bills (4-3)

Time: Thursday, October 26th, 2023 at 8:15pm EST

Weather: low 60s, mild wind, slight chance of rain showers.

Line (via Caesar’s): BUF -9.5, 43.5.

TB Injuries: G Matt Feiler – Out, S Kaevon Merriweather – Out, WR Chris Godwin – Questionable (Full Participant in practice Wednesday), QB Baker Mayfield – Questionable (Full Participant in practice Wednesday), DT Vita Vea – Questionable (DNP Wednesday)

BUF Injuries: TE Dawson Knox – Out, TE Quentin Morris – Out, LB Baylon Spector – Out, DT Ed Oliver – Questionable

This Thursday night’s game will feature the suddenly shaky 4-3 Buffalo Bills at home against the improbably 3-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Buffalo is coming off an unimpressive win versus the hapless Giants two weeks ago, and an upset loss to the ugly Patriots this past weekend. They’ll look to right the ship against a Bucs team that’s lost two straight games and averages just 17.1 points per game, despite playing exclusively against teams allowing 18.1 or more. The Bills defense ranks fifth in the league, allowing 16.9 ppg defensively, which should make things even tougher for the Tampa offense than usual. On the other side of the equation we have the Tampa defense just behind Buffalo at 17.3 ppg, against the third-ranked scoring offense of Buffalo at 28.3 ppg. On the surface, we would expect Buffalo to get out to an early lead here, forcing Tampa’s hand into the passing game (not that they’ve had much success on the ground anyways).

It’s a bit more complicated than that though, as Buffalo’s offense hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in the first half since week five in London against Jacksonville, where they got one in the second quarter. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see this game look a bit like last week’s in New England, which saw just 16 first half points. The Bills boast a top ten pass defense (201.3 ypg) but are bottom ten in rushing (128.3 ypg). Although Tampa hasn’t been efficient running the ball, it may be in their best interest to try and control it as much as possible, and keep it out of the hands of Josh Allen.  I expect Buffalo to keep their foot on the pedal should the scoring start early, as I’m sure Bills coach Sean McDermott would like to put their early game offensive struggles to bed. We’ll see if Tampa’s defense can keep pace in the early game as successfully as New England and New York were able to. 

With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at some potential props for tonight. Today and moving forward, I’ll be using Caesar’s sportsbook lines, as that will be our primary option here in the state of Maine. You may find even more advantageous lines at your own books, or perhaps less value. Be sure to factor potential pricing differences into your decisions when you’re considering a bet. All lines and prices are current as of the time of this posting, but may be different by the time you read this.

Baker Mayfield over 33.5 pass attempts -131

It’s clear that Tampa’s run game has been problematic, and while they may try and get it going tonight against Buffalo, there’s a reasonable chance they’re forced to abandon it early. Baker has eclipsed this total in 4/6 games this year, with 42 and 37 attempts the previous two outings. The run game is in shambles, and I expect him to be playing from behind before halftime. Sportsline projects 37 attempts and Numberfire projects 34. I think it’s accurately priced, and I still like the over. Which leads me to my next two picks..

Mike Evans over 57.5 receiving yards -133

Chris Godwin over 53.5 receiving yards -119

Just last week, this Bills defense surrendered 272 passing yards to Mac Jones and made the New England offense look like an actual football team, which is difficult to do. They’re allowing 267 yards in the air over their past four games, with just one good performance by holding backup Tyrod Taylor to 200 yards. I expect a heavy dose of targets to Evans and Godwin this week as Tampa is likely to be playing from behind, and should continue to struggle in the run game. If you’re picking between the two for a structured parlay, I’d go with Evans up to 59.5 yards. The Bills have surrendered five 60+ yard performances over the past three weeks, including all three opposing WR1s.

Josh Allen over 22.5 rushing yards -145

I know, the game logs look scary. Josh Allen hasn’t eclipsed 20 rushing yards since week three. However, after five weeks in a row in which Allen received just 2-4 carries per contest, that number bumped up to seven last week as the Bills looked to return to more of what they do best; mixing things up utilizing all aspects of Allen’s special skill set. I’d look for him to get a number of designed runs tonight as Buffalo tries to work out the kinks of their first half offense. Tampa surrendered 38 yards to Desmond Ridder last week, and 28 to Jalen Hurts in week three, and both projection models I look at have 25 and 29 yards. I’ll pay the juice and take the over here.

My Bet: Baker Mayfield over 34.5 pass attempts + Josh Allen over 23.5 rush yards

Drafters is still available to me here in Maine, but unsurprisingly I can’t combine the Bucs WR props with Baker’s attempts over, so I’m just going two legs tonight on Baker and Allen’s rushing total. Good luck to us all!

As always, these are my thoughts and your picks are your own. Gamble responsibly, and have fun!